Wow another year has passed before we knew it. What does 2010 have in store? How much of it is hype from Johnny come lately vendors trying to jump on the money train and how much of it will actually amount to products that make a difference - is yet to be determined. Here is my best guess of things to come for the next year:
1) Cloud - will continue to be the marketing "Hype" word. Every Web 2.0, IT As A Service, Virtualization Platform, Systems Management Company etc will continue to jump on the "Cloud" bandwagon to get their piece of the pie. This will continue to muddy the waters and confuse IT and Senior executives while they try to figure out what is really a cloud and what is not. This will delay actual adoption and/or fuel more pilots (similar to VDI) to enable IT to figure out best strategy, impact, and additional tools required to drive more efficiency and less costs during their implementation cycles.
2) Compliance - will play a much bigger role in driving new product innovation and budgets - once again catching the naysayer off guard as it did with SOX and having more vendors jump on that bandwagon. We now have a Cybersecurity Czar, new provisions for Health Care, pending deadlines for Electronic Medical Records, and Auditors asking for more details on how and what tools are available to check impact of virtualization. This is a big area that really needs more thought leadership, standards and catch up a like.
3) War between Physical and Virtual will continue to heat up - who will win the war between the big paradigm shift? The current physical tools in place or the virtualization only tools. The answer here is simple - the hybrid approach. Customers will push back on attempts to virtualize ALL their desktops, servers, systems, and tools. They will force vendors to have a single pane of glass to manage both physical and virtual paradigms. Those that provide the bridge between the physical and virtual paradigm across the stack will win the war.
4) Win 7 Migration Planning - less deploying until 2nd half of this year and into 2011. Most large enterprise customers I have worked with over the years take a minimum of 18 months to migrate to a new OS. Many are just cutting their teeth on Win 7 and trying to determine what is viable and what is not in terms of the biggest factors that inhibited Vista adoption - Application Compatibility, Hardware Requirements, and impact on end users (business continuity). They are once bit and twice shy with Vista although they know they have to migrate because many skipped Vista and XP is on it's way out.
5) 2010 is the Year of the Desktop - over the last 3-5 years the desktop has taken a back seat in terms of budgets, hype cycle and innovation. Many vendors tried to apply server technology to the desktop to extend their reach into the proverbial pocketbook of the Enterprise but have fueled internal debates and concern. Desktop Managers, Architects, and Dependent groups are pushing back while creating their own evaluations and new paradigms will emerge as a result. They have successfully shown through failed pilots, business cases, etc that solutions which solve server issues can not be easily used to solve desktop issues as well.
6) Financial Institutions will still see Cloudy market -Many of the revenues they enjoyed in 2009 will diminish based on clamping down by government with new taxes being levied on the financial services industry to cover the recent bailout combined with more foreclosures from the last wave of interest only loans coming due in 2010 and 2011, and the high unemployment rate. This market will continue to be uncertain and executives will continue to proceed with caution with the exception of projects that enable more visibility (Compliance and Analytics), costs reduction initiatives such as consolidating data centers or staff to less expensive markets (salary, land, taxes).
7) Compliance and Compatibility will drive adoption of alternative solutions such as Application Virtualization, Web 2.0, and Virtual Desktops. The number of pilots and niche adoptions for virtual applications, converting applications to Web 2.0 (similar to Salesforce.com), and niche deployments of virtual desktops will increase as companies try to determine the most cost effective approach to balancing increased demand for mobility (home office, global), regulations, and they are forced to migrate to Win 7 or an alternative.
8) Software as a Service and IT as a Service will heat up in Healthcare, Education, and Government - Regulations and Budget cuts across the board are pushing C Level executives to rethink the way they do business. Smaller doctors offices, clinics and hospitals will scramble for low cost alternatives that enable using User Based provisioning from a hosted model versus per seat license count to reduce costs, support overhead, and impact on not complying. Education will follow suit to ensure Privacy Act provisions are in place as more displaced workers return to school and more emphasis and actual fines are being placed on violations of privacy. Budget strapped state and local governments will look for ways to drive efficiency and process to deal with their staffing shortages and shortfall in general. Virtualization and BSM will prove to be viable solutions.
9) Consolidation will continue in overall Systems Management Space - interesting moves this month with HP and Microsoft partnership (should not overshadow VMware/HP Partnership). More sleeping giants like Dell, BMC and CA with their larger partners like Salesforce.com, Oracle, and Cisco will up their game through enhanced partnerships, being acquired, and/or acquiring newer technologies to refresh their portfolio to combat the race for the Cloud, Virtual Desktops, and Service Management tools as the tornado continues.
10) High Growth for Process Engineering and Technical Services for various forms of virtualization, cloud, and communications. As more larger companies jump on the SaaS, Cloud, and virtualization bandwagon there will be a greater need to work with "experts" that can enable IT and C Level Executives define not only the best way to implement these technologies but also what will be needed from a process and people (new skill set) perspective. These technologies are still fairly nascent and have impacted or changed the way that many things are tracked, deployed and maintained. Companies have invested millions in creating processes, tools, and audit trails around traditional systems. They will look to see how they can reap the savings rewards for newer technologies without having to rebuild their entire ecosystem, have duplicate systems, or stretch an already stretched out team any further. More expertise will be needed to assist with reducing inter departmental friction through process re-engineering, vendor evaluations, and implementing from pilot to production.
2010 will be an exciting departure and similar to when BSM first started a significant year of growth for many vendors (small and big a like) and seeing who will emerge as leaders in this area will be very exciting.
Cheers,
Jeanne
The proverbial virtualization train has left the station - yet many software vendors & customers alike are still scrambling on to understand the impact on their current technology, licensing models, and processes. Like many major paradigm shifts - customers are moving forward and carving out what they believe to be the right pathway based on limited information and their interpretation of where this market is headed based on decisions from major technology vendors such as Microsoft, Oracle, and SAP.
Unfortunately for most customers there are no true best practices across software vendors for supporting virtualization. As consumers you need to be aware of what the pitfalls are, precautions you can take to avoid them, and ways you can leverage your existing tools and processes to reduce not only the costs but impact of virtualization to your organization.
Considerations to Address
1. What Delivered - there are many different types of virtualization that can be leveraged such as Server, Desktop, or Application. What you are delivering will impact how you count and license the product. Is it an open source application, custom homegrown application, regulated and restricted access, or an expensive off the shelf application such as Adobe Photoshop. Whether the application is a desktop application, server application or combination of the two - Web 2.0 - makes a difference to cost structures and tracking.
2. How Delivered - For example - is it a server application running inside a virtual machine, a virtual application launched off a USB stick or file media share, or a combination of virtual applications with a virtual desktop from a datacenter, or a virtual application delivered from the Cloud or Managed Service Provider. All can have license impacts depending on the software vendors support policies. Different software vendors have different rules depending on delivery: Concurrent desktops in Datacenter (VDI/HVD), Virtual Applications from a Client Device, or Streaming from the Cloud all typically have different caveats. For example, Microsoft requires an additional Services Provider License Agreement to distribute their applications from a cloud environment to customers. There are many unanswered questions that have come up regarding traditional delivery of virtual applications - if I stage it - does that count as a license? Do virtual applications (not installed) count against a EULA that claims it has to be installed? One rule of thumb - if you use it, you should expect to pay for it - Software Usage becomes even more critical in the virtual world.
3. How Discover & Audit - Virtualization can have significant impact on existing tools and process for Audit & Control of applications.
- Application -If you are using application virtualization - does the provider provide transparency into the virtual bubble? Does the virtual application have digital rights management to prevent copying from client to next? How do you detect a virtual application that isn't registered? What hooks are available to ensure there are no invisibility cloaks hiding applications that can call back to ISVs but are undetected by company?
- Desktop -When you check out the type 1 hypervisor - will your traditional tools be able to know that the license on the user endpoint is the same one under the agreement with the hosted virtual desktop? If you vary your update schedule for discovery - how do you audit the virtual desktop? What happens if the user never logs in during the appropriate window? What is the impact on audit trail for tracking who touched what pieces? How will the discovery tool input and discern between licenses on the different virtual machines? Particularly - the personal VM and company approved VM?
- Server - When you dynamically move one virtual machine to another host - will the discovery tool know to not double count the application? Will the software vendor support the flavor of server virtualization being used? What level of support will be provided? How is it licensed compared to traditional licensing when server farms may have a cluster of more powerful boxes with multiple CPUs to support capacity on demand in the cloud (private or off premise).
4.
What is Impact on Performance - Oracle and many other major vendors provide prescriptive guidance on running certain applications in a virtual environment due to performance. There is no one perfect rule of thumb on virtualization and performance but there are some things to consider. Regardless of the type of virtualization - they all run on hardware of some type and are all affected by the traditional layers in the stack from network, to I/O, CPU, SAN/NAS, etc. The more layers you add to the stack will eliminate some problems but are still bound by the underlying hardware. When selecting the right type of virtualization - it is critical to understand what that is, where it will be run from, and impact on capacity requirements for individual users. There are tools out there from BMC - Capacity Management Essentials and Novell - Platespin acquisition- that can assist here.
5. What is impact on Security - If using Type 1 hypervisor approach - who is responsible for patching the personal VM and ensure there are no Distributed Denial of Service Attacks on the company network? What are the implications of regulations on this approach - Cyber Security Act, Personal Information Acts? For application virtualization - what measures are put in place to prevent viruses from executing from the virtual registry on systems that the users have Administrative rights to like their home PC, employee owned machines, or as required to support legacy applications that can not be virtualized? Is the right transparency there for virtual applications to detect if there is a virus in the virtual registry? Do they employ anti-injection techniques to prevent malware from impacting the virtual environment?
Like any paradigm shift - the benefits of virtualization and cloud computing far outweigh the risks and effort required to bring nascent markets and technology to mainstream but it will take time. The most important thing for customers and vendors both is to be informed and understand what the implications are, where adjustments need to be made and make decisions based on assessed impact. Typically I always advise customers to crawl, walk and then run when it comes to adopting new paradigms (this is not just new technology) that will impact the overall ecosystem in place around people, processes, and technology. An ounce of prevention is truly worth 100 pounds of cure when you consider how dependant we have all become on technology.
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